Pushback against conscription plans in Germany

Two female soldiers of the German Armed Forces, Vivian T. (L) and Ramona F. (R) walk across the grounds of Lueneburg’s Theodor Koerner Barracks in Lower Saxony on November 17, 2022 | File Photo: Philipp Schulze/dpa

Munich (dpa) – Economic researchers of the German ifo Institute for Economic Research warned on Wednesday of immense economic costs if compulsory military service is reintroduced in Germany.

Depending on the scenario, the move would reduce German economic output by between EUR 3 billion and EUR 70 billion (USD 75.7 billion), according to calculations by the researchers.

Germany effectively abolished military conscription in 2011, although the country’s law continues to allow for mandatory service in the event of war or other tensions. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has brought the German military’s shortfalls into renewed focus and ignited a debate over reintroducing compulsory military service.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius presented plans in June for a new military service model designed to help fill the army’s depleted ranks. The step would not reinstate conscription. Pistorius instead stressed that he anticipates using the registration questionnaires to see who might have interest in voluntarily doing service with the Bundeswehr. Pistorius described the idea as “selective military service,” designed to allow the military to call up only “the fittest, most suitable and most motivated” for training.

According to the plans, an initial 5,000 additional people are intended to be recruited each year from 2025 onwards from the pool of 400,000 candidates in a given year, with more to follow. The new model consists of basic military service of six months with an option for additional voluntary military service of up to an additional 17 months.

The economic researchers analysed three scenarios: If compulsory military service affected the entire cohort in each case, this would depress economic output by 1.6 percent, or EUR 70 billion.

If only around a quarter of a cohort were conscripted, similar to the old compulsory military service, this would cost EUR 17 billion. “According to the ifo Institute‘s calculations, the annual obligation of a quarter of an age cohort as part of compulsory military service, that is around 195,000 people, would lead to a reduction in gross national income of EUR 17.1 billion [USD 18.5 billion].” If five percent of an age group were conscripted it would be EUR 3 billion, the ifo Institute reported.

Criticism from coalition partners

Meanwhile, a coalition partner in the government has also opposed the conscription plans.

Ministers from German junior coalition partner the Free Democrats (FDP) have criticized the new conscription model, including requiring young men to register for potential military service, put forward by German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius of the Social Democratic Party (SPD). In a letter to Pistorius on Tuesday, Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Justice Minister Marco Buschmann, both of the FDP, welcome the debate he has initiated on increasing military service.

However, they do not consider general conscription or compulsory service to be realistic for financial, economic and legal reasons. Instead, the two politicians are in favour of increasing the attractiveness of the military profession and a stronger role for the reserves, they write in the letter made available to dpa.

“We are united by the goal of making the Bundeswehr one of the most modern and effective armies,” the letter states. “We can and will only achieve this goal with the corresponding social acceptance. In our opinion, this excludes the reintroduction of general conscription or compulsory service.” The two FDP ministers point out that structures would have to be established for a new general conscription or compulsory service, which would be a “lengthy and extremely cost-intensive process.”

Lindner and Buschmann also foresee legal challenges. “Obliging small parts of a cohort to be conscripted or even to perform military service would inevitably raise questions about the fairness of military service,” they wrote. In addition, this would represent a deep cut in the freedom and personal life planning of those affected, they said.

In order to solve the Bundeswehr‘s personnel problems, the two FDP politicians are instead focusing on making the armed forces an “even more attractive employer.” The role of reservists should also be strengthened, they said.

Women in the Bundeswehr

Last week, the inspector general of Germany’s armed forces suggested including women in the compulsory military service if it were to be reintroduced to “establish equality.”

In comments to German media group RND published last Thursday, Carsten Breuer, the army’s highest-ranking officer, noted that conscription, currently suspended, only applies to men according to the Basic Law, but said that “equality should be established.” However, establishing equal rights in this case requires a corresponding political and social debate, Breuer added.

Women could volunteer if they choose under Defence Minister Pistorius’ plans for a compulsory registration in which young men would have to state their willingness and ability to perform military service.

Breuer expressed his support for Pistorius’ new conscription model. He said that from a military perspective, there is a need to build up capabilities, particularly with regard to NATO’s planning. He noted that Germany is the central hub for the Western defence alliance and that the country requires over 400,000 temporary and professional soldiers and reservists. To meet this demand, some 100,000 additional reservists are needed, which could initially be met by the new model, according to Breuer. However, he emphasized that mandatory elements would still be necessary.

In May, the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces, Eva Högl, said in remarks published by the German media organization Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND) that there were too few women are serving in the German military. Högl, who is a member of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), said, “We cannot go on as before.”

Women currently make up a little over 13 percent of personnel serving in the Bundeswehr, the German military, with the figure going below 10 percent ‘if one excludes the medics.’ According to Germany’s defence ministry, 17 percent of applications came from women, last year, close to the official target of 20 percent laid down in law. Högl’s predecessor, Hans-Peter Bartels, called for women to be included in the event of a return to military conscription, in remarks to national public radio Deutschlandfunk.